To the oil-producing nations, it should have seemed like eternally that Crude Oil prices slid down, down, and down some more after the outstanding Highs of last Summer season. To these nations whose budgets have been based on the assumption of Crude prices at $eighty five or $a hundred per barrel, assumptions had been thrown askew as prices descended below those levels and then down so far as $forty four per barrel. Saudi Arabia may not have cared terribly a lot, since among all producing nations it’s the low-cost producer at – we now have heard – only $3 per barrel. However to those international locations which harbor particular agendas, such as Iran and Venezuela, $forty four oil bit exhausting.
Now, with oil at about $sixty eight per barrel, Mr. Chavez has a freer hand in subsidizing his own favored client states similar to Cuba and Honduras. He might not be aware of it, however that little get together goes to return to an finish.
Certainly there might be little doubt that the huge decline in Crude costs since final Summer season was an impulsive move, a demonstration of a serious trend in movement. What we have now seen since the bottom in March 2009 is an upward a-b-c correction of that underlying development. That correction has now run its course. It is in the nature of all upward corrections that, when they are executed, prices revert to levels lower than those which obtained before the correction began. This essentially means that we will see Crude Oil beneath $forty four per barrel – presumably below $30.
Once once more, this may elevate havoc with the budgets of most of the producing nations, while industrial and particular person customers will probably be delighted.
In particular, the Candlestick sample in Crude Oil right now lends credence to the proposition that, indeed, the value of Crude has peaked and is now headed Down once more. True, one day doesn’t a pattern make. Even so, we see a tall black worth bar right this moment (a “down” day) which bearishly engulfed the “actual physique” price motion of the 2 previous days and almost engulfed the day earlier than that. We take this pattern to be bearish. As well as, it appears that Monday’s excessive was the top of Wave 2 of the primary down-up move in a decline. When and if costs now proceed to decline beneath 67.40 – the low of Wave 1 – the die can have been solid and prices should continue to fall thereafter.
If this situation comes to move, we are able to count on to see a recurrence of budget troubles in Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Iraq too. Old assumptions can be put to the take a look at again, and might be discovered wanting. One can foresee the potentialities of civil unrest; and one wonders what effect may be felt by the vastly repressive regime in Iran which, sadly, again holds its personal individuals in thrall, now to a better extent than ever.
Whichever method Crude Oil prices could go from right here, we all know this much: their doubtless course might be foretold by the Candlestick patterns in the price charts.
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